Is the English Premier League the best football league in the world?
Is the English Premier League the best football league in the world?
Off the pitch, there is no doubting that the English Premier League is the richest and most watched football league in the world. In Deloitte’s latest Annual Review of Football Finance, the Premier League’s combined revenue grew by 8% to £5.5 billion in 2021/22 despite the Covid pandemic. This is nearly double second place La Liga’s 2.95 billion. With the Premier League now commanding 11 of the 20 richest teams in the world, the report itself asked the question: how long before we see all 20 Premier League clubs in the top 30?
On the pitch though, is the EPL the best league in the world?
Is the English Premier League the best league in the world?
Below are the league tables for the 2021/22 season for the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 using Expected Points (xP). Which one was the most competitive league?
Well, this depends entirely on how you measure it. Do you measure competitiveness by the winning margin of the champions? The difference between the champions and bottom-placed team? The difference between European qualification and relegation? The number of matches finishing with a goal difference of three or more? The number of European titles or individual awards (i.e., Ballon d’Or)? The average goal difference between matches? The number of wins (or draws) by each team? The number of different champions?
With so many ways of measuring a league’s competitiveness and no summary statistic compressing all these measurements into a single defining view, a more holistic approach is needed. This article will decide whether the English Premier League is the best league in the world by analysing whether it is the mostcompetitive amongst Europe’s so called Top 5 leagues. First, a league’s competitive balance will be studied, followed by the domination of the ‘big’ teams in each league. Second, which league has the best team and players. This article is about a thirty-minute read and will compare findings with recent research.
Is the English Premier League the most competitively balanced league?
In short, the EPL is not the most competitively balanced league. When comparing all (20) teams in the league over the last eight seasons, Ligue 1 is the most competitive league. Was the EPL the second most? Third? (Continue reading to find out.)
How was this even measured?
Using the real standard deviation (RSD) which provides greater precision when considering the average of any set of data. Typically, whenever the competitive balance of a football league is measured, the final points tally of each team at the end of the season is invariably used. In a recent academic article exploring new ways to measure competitive balance of a football league, the researchers developed a new goal-based index which relied on the scorelines of the matches instead of the outcomes (the points). They proposed that this match-level measure deepens the measure of competitive balance in leagues.
However, any sports fan, especially a football fan, knows that the best team does not always win the match. Football is such a low-scoring game that randomness [luck] has a large part to play in the outcome of a match. So, instead of using the final points total of a league or scorelines to measure the competitive balance, this article will use Expected Points (xP). The reason for this is that this metric separates the lucky from the skilful, thus, a more accurate assessment of the closeness between teams actual performance is achieved. The xP data was collected from the understat website from which the last eight seasons were available.
To work out the xP each team deserves, basically run lots and lots of simulations to find the probability of each match outcome and plug into a formula. This is shown in the graphic above. For example, if the sides created the exact same quality of chances, Arsenal could expect to win 18.69% of the time. Now, using xP to determine competitive balance of the Top 5 leagues, what were the results?
Ligue 1 was the most competitive league amongst the Top 5 leagues over the last eight seasons. This was followed quite closely by the Bundesliga and La Liga. A bit further behind was Serie A with the EPL coming last. Therefore, the English Premier League is actually the least competitive league amongst the Top 5 leagues over the last eight seasons.
Remember, the real standard deviation (RSD) is a measure of spread; a measure of how close to the mean (average) the data is spread. It is measuring the closeness of all 20 (or 18 in the Bundesliga) teams in a league. A lower RSD indicates that the xP for each team were closer to the mean, suggesting that the clubs in the league were more evenly matched than those leagues with a high RSD. The first table below shows the RSD metric for the last eight seasons for the Top 5 leagues.
The second table (above) compares the last eight seasons of each of the Top 5 leagues ranking all 40 seasons. The most competitive season was the 2018/19 in LaLiga. A big reason for this is that 19 of the 20 were separated by only 24.93 (expected) points and all teams separated by 33.73 (73.96 – 40.23) points. The least competitive season was the 2021/22 in the Premier League where all teams were separated by 66.34 points (91.88 – 25.04). Again, the RSD is a measurement for all teams in the league. It is very possible to have a smaller range of points in the league but a higher RSD, it really depends on the spread of all teams.
How does this compare with other findings?
In a recent study of competitive balance, researchers analysed 24 top-division domestic football leagues in Europe covering 22 seasons between 2000/01 and 2021/22. Whilst the researchers were investigating the impact of Financial Fair Play Regulations, they used a normalised version of the Herfindahl Index of Competitive Balance to measure overall league concentration. Results for the Top 5 leagues ranked Ligue 1 (107.99) as the most competitive, followed by the Bundesliga (109.27) and La Liga (109.73), then Serie A (111.32) and lastly, the EPL (111.35).
Another competitive balance study of football leagues looking at the seasons between 1995/96 and 2016/17 found similar results. This is not surprising as both these studies overlap considerably in the seasons analysed. One noticeable difference though, is that all the leagues seem to be becoming less competitive. This has been confirmed in a recent study, showing the competitive balance in the Top 5 leagues is low in general and shows a decreasing trend over 25 years, from 1997 to 2022. Using the distance to competitive balance (DCB) measurement, they too found Serie A (DCB = 45.3%) and the EPL (DCB = 44.4%) have the lowest balance. Ligue 1 has, on average, the highest level of competitive balance (DCB = 36.9%).
Using a different method, a data scientist looked at six European leagues, the Top 5 and the Eredivisie (Dutch) league. He concluded that the Bundesliga was the most competitive league, with the Eredivisie the least competitive. He tentatively placed Serie A second and acknowledged that La Liga, Ligue 1 and EPL were similarly placed.
Is the English Premier League dominated more by their BIG teams?
It depends on what measure you take. Sometimes yes, sometimes no (read below).
How was this measured?
Four datasets considered: average league position of the top 2 / top 4, available points won by the top 2 / top 4 teams, number of clubs finishing in the top 4 / top 6 and league titles.
First, to calculate the average league position of teams is simply. Add up each team’s final league position in each of the last nine seasons and divide by nine to find their average league position. This allowed the ‘Big 4’ teams of each league to be identified for the last nine years. The (mean) average was then calculated for the Top 2 and Top 4 for each league. To be clear, it was actual points won and not Expected Points (xP) that was used for this. The main reason for this is that league position is determined by actual points scored.
In terms of the Top 2 teams, La Liga had the lowest average league position (1.83) meaning that Barcelona and Real Madrid dominated the league more than any other two teams in their respected league (unsurprising for many football fans). Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga closely followed with an average league position of 2 exactly. This was followed by Serie A (2.61), Ligue 1 (2.67) and the EPL (2.83). Therefore, the English Premier League is the least dominated league by its Top 2 teams in the last nine seasons.
In terms of the Top 4 teams, La Liga, again, had the lowest average league position (2.75) meaning that Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla dominated the league more than any other four teams in their respected league (again, unsurprising for many football fans). The second most dominate ‘Big 4’ teams were in Serie A (3.36), closely followed by the EPL (3.42). This was followed by Ligue 1 (3.81) and the Bundesliga (3.89). Therefore, the English Premier League is the third most dominated league by its Top 4 teams in the last nine seasons.
The graph above illustrates the average league position of each of the ‘Big 4’ teams in each of the Top 5 leagues over the last nine seasons. Three of the seven teams with the best average league position were from La Liga (Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid). The average league position for Bayern Munich was one, highlighting that they have won the league for the last nine years (actually last 10).
But, which ‘Big 4’ teams gain the most points?
The second measure used to determine how dominate the big teams are was the concentration ratio. It is typically used in economics to measure the combined market share of a given number of firms to the whole market size. The concentration ratio ranges from 0% to 100%, indicating the degree of competition in the industry. For example, when looking at the smartphone manufacturers in the United Kingdom in 2019, Apple had a 43% market share and Samsung had a 37% market share. Thus, the two firm concentration ratio was 80%.
So, whilst it is [theoretically] possible for a business to have 100% market share, this is not the same for sports leagues like football. When using the concentration ratio for football leagues, usually researchers have divided the points gained from the Top 4 combined by the total points gained from the whole league. This analysis will differ by dividing by the maximum number of points the Top 2 or Top 4 could have scored.
For example, to calculate the Top 2 concentration ratio for the 2021/22 Premier League season, add Manchester City and Chelsea’s totals (93 + 74) and divide by the maximum number of points that the Top 2 could have gained (222), giving 75.2%. To note, Chelsea actually came 3rd that season but Chelsea had the second-best average league position finish in the last nine years, thus the concentration ratios calculated follow the Top 2 or Top 4 teams as previously identified.
As shown by the graphic above, over the last nine seasons, the Top 2 teams in La Liga had the highest concentration ratio (77.0%). Thus, Barcelona and Real Madrid won 77.0% of the maximum number of points available during this period. The second highest concentration ratio for the Top 2 teams was in the Bundesliga (77.6% for Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund) closely followed by Serie A (74.3% for Juventus and Napoli). Tied 4th with a concentration ratio of 70.7%, comes the EPL (Man City and Chelsea) and Ligue 1 (PSG and Lyon). Therefore, the English Premier League is the least dominated (along with Ligue 1) by its Top 2 teams in the last nine seasons.
Regarding the Top 4 teams over the last nine seasons, Ligue 1 had the highest concentration ratio (78.4%). Thus, PSG, Lyon, Monaco and Marseille won 78.4% of the maximum number of points available (420). The second highest concentration ratio for the Top 4 teams was in La Liga (75.4%, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla). Third highest from Serie A (73.7%, Juventus, Napoli, Roma and Inter), followed by the EPL (71.2%, Man City, Chelsea, Man Utd and Liverpool). Finally, the Bundesliga’s concentration ratio of 69.5% (Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Leverkusen and B.M’gladback) indicates that the Top 4 teams dominated the least in the Top 5 leagues. Overall, when looking at both the Top 2 and Top 4 teams in a league, the English Premier League is the least dominated over the last nine seasons.
Are the Big teams getting bigger?
Acknowledging that only looking at the last nine seasons is a small sample, there are no clear trends. There is a very small decline in points scored from the Top 2 teams from La Liga and Serie A, however, again, these are very small and do not substantially point towards anything in particular. The sharp drop from the EPL (red line above) in the 2015/16 is Leicester City’s remarkable title run when all the big teams had an usually low points tally. It has been reported that Leicester City was expected to win the EPL title with a probability of 0.004%, around 20 000 to 1.
When looking at the Top 4 teams in each league (graph below), again, there are still no clear trends. There is a very small increase in points scored from the Top 4 teams from the EPL, however, again, this is very small. Also to note, the C-19 pandemic did negatively impact a team’s home advantage thus, speculatively, it may have ‘hurt’ the big teams more as they tend to dominate their competitors.
How does this compare with other findings?
In its 2020 Global Competitive Balance Report, FIFA looked at the percentage of points won by the top three clubs over five seasons (2015 to 2020). It reported that the Premier League is the seventh least competitive league in Europe, with the top team winning 83% of the available points, second place winning 73%, and third winning 64%. Regarding the other ‘Top 5’ leagues, they were ranked 10th (Bundesliga), 12th (Ligue 1), 15th (La Liga) and 16th (Italy). It must be pointed out that this was a very small sample of five seasons and that it had ranked them by the top winning teams, and only looked at the second and third placed points if there was a tie. Thus, concluding the competitiveness of a league based on one team’s performance.
The 40th Monthly Report of the CIES Football Observatory analysed competitive balance from 24 European competitions over ten seasons between 2008/09 and 2017/18. They also looked at the average percentage of points of champions by league with La Liga champions scoring the second highest (82.7%), Bundesliga fourth (79.3%), Serie A sixth (77.6%), EPL seventh (77.3%) and Ligue 1 (75.0%). Perhaps the most important finding was that over the ten seasons, champions’ title points were 10% greater, difference between first and last grew from 76.0% to 80.8% and the top three places showed the same trend towards increasing imbalance.
Is the English Premier League hardest to finish in the Top 4?
The third measure to determine how dominate the big teams are looked at the number of different teams finishing in the top 4 and 6 positions. In the last nine seasons, there was very little difference between the Top 5 leagues. Both the EPL and La Liga saw the fewest number of teams (7) finish in a top 4 spot. However, this was only one less than the eight different teams finishing in a top 4 spot in Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A.
Interestingly, a study looking at the impact of Financial Fair Play (FFP) comparing 11 seasons pre-FFP (2000/01 to 2010/11) to 11 seasons post-FFP (2012/13 to 2021/22), found that the number of teams finishing in the top 4 decreased by either 2 or 3 in all the Top 5 leagues when the seasons post-FFP to pre-FFP. Overall, it reported, 14 out of 24 leagues experienced a decline in top four finishers in the post-FFP period, with only two leagues experiencing an increase.
In terms of the top 6, the EPL had the fewest number of different teams (10) finishing in a top 6 spot. This was only one fewer (11) than La Liga and Serie A, followed by Ligue 1 (12) and lastly by the Bundesliga, which had 14 different teams finishing in a top 6 spot over the last nine seasons. Therefore, the English Premier League has the fewest number of teams finishing in both the top 4 and 6 spots over the last nine seasons, thus is dominated the most by its ‘big’ teams.
In a recent longitudinal study on England’s top league, researchers analysed the English First Division / Premier League over 44 years from 1978/1979 to 2021/2022. The results provided evidence for two things. First, the league was quite balanced from around 1980 to 2003. Second, since 2003, the league has become more imbalanced. They explained that the league can be measured in two blocks of teams, and that the strongest block of teams has seen a decrease in the number of teams over the years.
But, there are many teams that can win the English Premier League?
The fourth measure to determine how dominate the big teams are looked at the number of title winners. This is a very simple measure and is often used in the debate. The illustration below shows the number of teams to win a league title in the Top 5 leagues and how many they have won over the nine seasons.
The Bundesliga championship has been absolutely dominated by one team, Bayern Munich, winning the last nine (actually 10). This could not be any worse. A league’s championship, rightly, gets a lot of attention and the uncertainty-of-outcome hypothesis (UOH) posits that sports fans value competitive contests, implying they will become less interested when competitive balance of a league is low. That competitive balance is often judged on how the number of teams with a realistic chance of winning the title.
Ligue 1, Serie A and La Liga have all had three different champions in the least nine seasons. Ligue 1 and Serie A are identical in that they both were dominated by a single team, with PSG and Juventus each winning seven championships. In comparison to La Liga, it has three more evenly spread champions. In fact, La Liga is the only league that has three teams with multiple championships. Lastly, the EPL has had five different winners. Therefore, in terms of the number of teams winning the championship, the English Premier League is the hardest league to win.
Now, whilst a number of different winners helps the uncertainty-of-outcome hypothesis, the closeness of the title fight is just as important (for some it will be more important). Below is a table showing the points gap between first and second at the end of a championship. Looking at the number of title fights that have been three points or fewer, La Liga had five seasons, the EPL and Serie A both had two seasons and Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga both just having one season. Over the past nine seasons, the English Premier League have had two incredible title fights with just one point deciding the championship, however, other than that, they have not been that close.
Looking at the other end of the table and the relegation fight. There is not really too much difference between the leagues. Both the EPL and Serie A have had seven seasons of a survival points gap of three points or fewer, whereas the other three leagues have had six seasons of three points or fewer. The 2017/18 season in La Liga and the 2020/21 season in the EPL provided unusually high survival points gap.
Does the English Premier League have the best teams?
In short, over the last couple of seasons the English Premier League does, but typically it has been La Liga that has had the best teams.
How was this measured?
Three measurements were used: UEFA’s coefficient rankings, international players and European / individual awards.
First, UEFA’s coefficient ranking is based on points handed out to clubs competing in either the Champions League, Europa League or the new Europa Conference League. These competitions take teams from across Europe’s top divisions that not only offer lucrative financial rewards, but also allow comparisons between leagues. UEFA determines its rankings through a points system, allocating points for wins and general progression through the competition. An average score is then calculated depending on the number of teams from each league. Finally, the UEFA country coefficient is then a rolling five-year average. More information on UEFA’s points system can be found on their website.
In the 2021/22 season, the EPL had the highest coefficient (106.6 points), indicating that over the past five seasons, the Premier League clubs have performed better in UEFA competitions. However, over the last 20 seasons, La Liga has been ranked the highest a total of 13 times. Not only this, but La Liga’s gap to the EPL was substantial from 2013/14 to 2019/20. Therefore, the English Premier League is second to La Liga in terms of performing in UEFA’s competitions since 2002.
Another typical measure used in the ‘quality’ of a league is looking at the number of international players there are in each league. Looking at the last World Cup in Qatar, most players came from the EPL (134), followed by the La Liga (84), Bundesliga (77), Serie A (65) and lastly Ligue 1 (55). Similar findings for the World Cup in Russia are found too (see above). Therefore, it can be argued the English Premier League has the best players due to player representation at World Cups.
Finally, the number of Champions Leagues – and Europa – titles are used to determine which league is the best. If this happens, there is only really one clear winner: La Liga. It has the most Champions Leagues titles (19), which it further domainates when only the last 9 seasons compared. The graphic above does not include Europa titles, but if it did, it would once again strengthen La Liga’s claim of having the best teams as it has won six of the last nine.
The Ballon d’Or can be a thorny topic for some, especially over the last couple of decades witnessing a duopoly between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. Nevertheless, La Liga, again, has the most awards (23), and, again, even more dominate in the last nine seasons (you could argue the one for Ligue 1 was really for La Liga too as it was for Lionel Messi who had just signed for PSG). Therefore, in terms of European titles and Ballon d’Or awards, the English Premier League does not have the best teams or players.
Conclusion: Is the English Premier League the best league in the world?
Yes, the English Premier League is the best league in the world, for three reasons. First, it has the highest number of different champions over the last nine seasons. The actual championship (who is leading / wins) gets a significant amount of attention and by having the most teams capable of winning adds to the uncertainty-of-outcome hypothesis. This article weights this measurement significantly more than the (average) spread of all 20 teams in the league. Of course, an excessively imbalanced league is likely to have a negative impact on the demand for that league but do the differences in whole league concentration warrant significant attention.
Second, when looking at the both the Top 2 and Top 4 teams in a league, the Premier League collectively picked up the least points. So, whilst the evidence suggests that the top 6 teams in the Premier League do have a stronger grip on the top 6 positions, they nevertheless do not pick up as many points at the other teams. It must be noted though, that the EPL ought to look at their revenue redistribution models as an impregnable top 6 would likely harm the league, even if the top teams did not win as many points collectively when compared to other leagues.
Third, the English Premier League has, arguably, the better players collectively as well as some of the strongest teams in Europe. The Premier League has contributed the most players to the last two world cups and has a high UEFA coefficient, leading it seven times over the last 20 seasons and leading it for the last two seasons. Even if La Liga does edge the better teams category, the Premier League still shows it quality. It will also be interesting to see how the next few seasons how Europe’s new tertiary club competition impact the UEFA coefficients.
Like any debate, when answering this question, it comes down to selecting, discarding and weighting (numerical or not) of measurements. Looking at 18,260 games over 10 seasons of Europe’s Top 5 leagues, RunRepeat stated that the Premier League was the best league by scoring the most points in its analysis. This points system (weighting) was not shared though it did acknowledge the Premier Leagues pros and cons.
The Stat Squabbler says:
- Expected Points (xP) should me used more when measuring the competitive balance of a league as it disentangles luck and skill of a team
- Whilst acknowledging that the English Premier League is the best league in the world, the revenue distribution seems to be contributing to a two-tiered league.
- Overall, the Top 5 leagues are showing an increase in competitive imbalance which should concern the leagues as Loek Groot highlights that each team does have “an inherent interest in maintaining the health of their rivals”.
Do you agree with the Stat Squabbler, is the English Premier League the best league in the world?
Comment below.
