The Ballon d’Or is the most prestigious individual award in world football. It is revered by all with an interest in football, from occasional supporters to the most passionate of fans, from media pundits to managers and owners, and of course the players themselves.  Such is the weight attached to the annual award, a player is often judged on the number of Ballon d’Or awarded throughout their career. It is no surprise then that the actual award is hotly debated each year. One would hope that is it awarded fairly. And when it is not awarded, for whatever reason, the debate still rages.

On 20^th July 2020, France Football cancelled the 2020 Ballon d’Or due to the disruption to the football calendar caused by COVID-19. This ignited an immediate, apoplectic reaction from players’ fans to proclaim that their player was ‘robbed’. Below are some typical posts on Twitter.

The Ballon d’Or that never was – Who was ACTUALLY robbed?

This article uses widely available statistics, depicted in four easy to read graphs, to help determine the Ballon d’Or 2020 winner, recognising the multifaceted nature of the game and the contribution made by players. These are:

1. Goal Contributor
2. Playmaker
3. Showman
4. Player Efficiency

Each graph is based on two metrics, so a total of eight metrics have been used to best capture the multifaceted aspect of the sport. Remember, as with any fair comparison, everything is kept the same except for one thing. In terms of football, stating the obvious, that one thing that changes is the player. This means that everything else should be kept the same – even teammates when possible. All data is taken from the player’s respective league and Champions League (Europa for Immobile) performances in the 2019/20 season. All sources of data are at the end of the article.

Player/Winning Bias Challenge

Are you mislead by names or perhaps biased in favour of your own sporting hero? You’re only human and you are not alone. What I would ask you to do is to try to figure out who you believe should have won the 2020 Ballon d’Or based on the four graphs in this article – the players’ names have been removed (predict the 2020 Ballon d’Or winner here). Then read this article and see if you got the same answer.

1. Ballon d’Or 2020 Goal Contributor

In a nutshell: which players contributed the most (goals and assists) and their proportion to their team’s goals.

Which metrics were used?

The first one, Goals & Assists per 90, is used to measure the player’s contribution to the team’s goals. Football is a low-scoring game in which teams try to outscore each other, thus goals are highly important. To make the comparisons as fair as possible, a player’s minutes on field are factored in. This allows comparison of actual performance and not volume of performance, i.e., scoring more goals because the player had played more games. Despite its widespread use, it must be noted that the assist metric is certainly not the most robust, nevertheless, it does somewhat measure a player’s involvement in a goal (read expected assists). Another downside to the assist metric is that it does not credit/reward players who win penalties and freekicks that are then subsequently scored by another.

The second one, Goal Contributions % of Team, is used to show how much the individual player contributes to the team’s overall goals. To point out, this is when the player is actually on the pitch. For example, if a player directly contributes 40 out of the teams 80 goals whilst on the pitch, then he contributed 50%. To be clear, the team may have scored 90 goals, but the individual player may not have been on the pitch when the other 10 goals were scored. To note, penalties were included in Goals & Assists per 90, but not in Goal Contributions % of Team.

Why? To be frank, this was the choice of the analyst [Stat Squabbler] (read Can sporting artistry be measured?). Why though? Penalties could have been included in both metrics or neither, and so one simple decision was to include them in one. Which one? It barely made a difference (if the penalty taker was on the pitch, they usually ended up taking the penalty). Furthermore, this season saw the introduction of VAR across Europe’s top 5 leagues, and since the proliferation of penalty kicks now awarded and the fact only one player has that opportunity to score from them, it was decided the fairest way was to remove penalties from one of the metrics.

What does the data show?

In terms of Goals & Assists per 90, Lewandowski directly contributed 1.43 goals per match. Mbappe was second with 1.37 goals per match and Messi third with 1.32 goals per match. Due to Ligue 1 being brought to an abrupt end because of COVID, Mbappe played about 1400 minutes less than both Lewandowksi and Messi – something worth noting (similarly with Neymar). Whilst on the pitch, only one player directly contributed over half of their team’s goals in the league and Champions League. Lionel Messi. Messi directly contributed 56.0% of Barcelona’s goals during the 2019/20 season. Only two other players managed to directly contribute over 45% of their team’s goals, that was Mbappe 46.5% and Sancho 46.3%.

Messi’s influence was even greater for the 9-game title run in with Real Madrid in which he directly contributed a colossal 75% of the team’s goals (71.4% excluding penalties). Benzema was directly involved in 9 out of the 19 goals scored by Real Madrid players in the title run-in, that’s 47.4% including penalty goals and 50% excluding penalties. This highlights that not only does Messi influence a team’s goals the most, but also, Messi goes further still when it matters even more.

2. Ballon d’Or 2020 Playmaker

In a nutshell: who created the most chances for their teammates per game.

Which metrics were used?

The Key Pass per 90 metric is the final pass or pass-cum-shot leading to the teammate having an attempt at goal without scoring. The Big Chances Created per 90 metric is where the player has created an opportunity where their teammate is expected to score. This tends to be in a one-on-one scenario or from close proximity to the goal when the ball has a clear path to goal and little pressure on the shooter (further definitions see Optasports). Both metrics account for the minutes played by the players to enable fairer comparisons.

What does the data show?

The graph above clearly indicates five players (Sancho, Neymar, Mbappe, Messi and de Bruyne) breaking away from the cluster. Kevin de Bruyne made the most key passes, on average, per match (3.92) by quite some way ahead of second place Neymar (2.60) and third place Messi (2.59). In terms of Big Chances Created per 90, Messi created the greatest number of big chances, on average, per match (1.09), followed by de Bruyne (1.01) and in third Mbappe (1.00). After that, it was quite a considerably drop to Sancho (0.67) and Neymar (0.66) who were fourth and fifth respectively. Immobile and Ronaldo were the least involved in creating opportunities for their teammates and both were a little adrift of the bottom pack itself.

Another part of a playmaker’s role is to link up play, being heavily involved in the team’s play throughout the game. Neymar averaged the most touches per game with 91.3, Messi had the second highest number of touches per game with 84.9 and de Bruyne was third with 75.6. The other remaining players touched the ball, on average, per game: Sancho (64.3), Ronaldo (55.4), Mane (51.0), Sterling (50.9), Benzema (48.0), Mbappe (47.3), Salah (46.8), Werner (45.4), Lewandowski (42.7) and Immobile (36.4)

Kevin de Bruyne and Lionel Messi were the best playmakers in the 2019/2020 season.

3. Ballon d’Or 2020 Showman

In a nutshell: which player runs circles around his opponents.

Which metrics were used?

The Successful Dribbles per 90 metric is when a player beats the defender whist retaining possession. To point out, this metric measures when a player beats a [one] player. What this means is that when a player dribbles around two or three players, they are credited the same as a player who dribbles around just one player. The successful dribbles metric does measure a dribbler’s ability but like so many other metrics, it contains distortion. Like previous metrics used in this analysis, it accounts for the minutes played by the players. The Freekick Scored metric is when a player scores from a direct freekick situation.

What does the data show?

The graph below clearly points out the best two dribblers in world football. By some margin too. Though any football fan would not be surprised to see these two names at the top: Neymar and Messi. Both of these players are in a class of their own, completing, on average, about 6 successful dribbles per match. Neymar (6.03) just pips Messi (5.80).

However, whilst Neymar had a relatively high percentage of successful dribbles (62%), Messi was higher (69%). In other words, if all the players attempted the same number of dribbles, then Messi would have the most successful dribbles. The rest of the top 5 dribblers were Sancho who completed 2.53 dribbles per match at a success rate of 57%, Mbappe completed 2.41 dribbles per match at a success rate of 47% and Mane completed 2.15 dribbles per match at a success rate of 63%.

Another fan favourite, visual masterpieces, are direct freekicks. The expectation of a shot, brings palpable tension to the football fan. In this category alone, there is one absolute clear winner: Lionel Messi. Messi scored 5 freekicks in 2019/20 (down from 8 last season), but yet, had no match. Only Neymar, Lewandowski, Ronaldo and de Bruyne scored a single freekick this season.

In terms of showmanship, Messi and Neymar lead the way by some considerably margin, yet Messi had the highest success rate when attempting a dribble as well as having scoring five times more freekicks than his nearest rivals.

4. Ballon d’Or 2020 Player Efficiency

In a nutshell: which players created a greater number of big chances than they squandered and who was clinical in front of goal.

Which metrics were used?

Imagine two players: over the season, Player A creates 10 big chances and Player B creates 20 big chances. Who helped out the team more? Now, imagine, also, over a season, Player A misses 5 big chances and Player B misses 10 big chances. Who helped out the team more? Or did they contribute equally? Both Player A and Player B missed half the number of big chances when compared to the number of big chances they created for the team.

However, Player A only creates five big chances to the team after squandering five, whilst Player B creates 10 big chances to the team after squandering ten. This statistic is called the Big Chances Spread, which is calculated by subtracting the big chances missed by a player from the big chances created. A negative statistic shows that a player misses more big chances then they create whereas a positive statistic shows that a player creates more big chances then they miss. Again, the metric accounts for the minutes played by the players to enable fairer comparisons, thus Big Chances Spread per 90.

Similarly, imagine two players: over the season, Player C and Player D both scored 20 goals. Who helped out the team more in terms of goalscoring? Possible ways to help determine this would be to look at points won by goals or goals per minute. A fairer comparison would be to look at Expected Goals (xG), i.e., how many goals should have been scored given the opportunities. Now, if Player C’s xG was 21.2 and Player D’s xG was 19.1, then Player C scored 1.2 goals less than the average player would have in the same scenarios, whereas Player D scored 0.9 goals more than the average player would have in the same scenarios, thus Player D was more efficient.

The metric expected goals difference metric is used and calculated by subtracting expected goals from goals scored. A negative statistic shows inferior finishing to the average player whereas a positive statistic shows superior finishing to the average player given the opportunities presented.

What does the data show?

The graph is telling. Very. It differentiates three players from the rest placing them in a different stratosphere: Sancho, Messi and de Bruyne. These three players are the only players to have positive statistics for Big Chances Spread per 90 and Expected Goals Difference. In other words, they create a greater number of big chances for their teammates than they missed themselves as well as scoring more goals than the average player given the opportunities they had. All about giving. And giving a lot!

The top 3 in the European Golden Boot in 2019/20 were Immobile, the top scorer in the Serie A, with 36, Lewandowski, the top scorer in the Bundesliga, with 34 and Ronaldo with 31 in Serie A. All three players had a positive expected goals difference, though Immobile had a significantly better one (7.89) than Lewandowski (2.8) and Ronaldo (1.57). In other words, if Immobile and Lewandowski’s finishing ability were equal, Lewandowski would have won the European Golden Boot.

These three players, despite a positive expected goals difference, all missed a greater number of big chances then they created for their teammates. Lewandowski had the worst big chances spread per 90 (-0.47) of all 13 players above, meaning he squandered the most chances given how much he creates. In terms of just big chances missed per 90, Neymar was the most wasteful, missing 0.94 per game, and Lewandowski was second worse, missing 0.88 per game (36 altogether). Of course, players do have different roles in the team, and arguably Immobile, Lewandowski and Ronaldo are just strikers. Nevertheless, these players were more takers than givers in their team’s big chances. And remember, football is a team game.

Salah, Benzema and Neymar all had a negative Big Chances Spread as well as negative expected goals difference, meaning they all missed a greater number of big chances than they created and scored less goals than the average player given the chances they had. In other words, a bit of a burden to the team. Resource sapping.

And the Ballon d’Or 2020 Winner was…

Create your own Ballon d’Or ranking here.

2020 Ballon d’Or Winner: Lionel Messi

He did it all in 2020. Messi directly contributed the third–most goals per game as well as contributing the highest percentage of his team’s goals, thus demonstrating his importance to the team. He was one of the leading playmakers, ranking third for key passes per game and first in creating big chances per game. Messi was the best showman in world football, having the highest success rate when attempting to dribble and scoring the most freekicks by some margin. He was one of the most efficient players, directly contributing the most goals out of the three highly, efficient players.

2020 Ballon d’Or 2^nd place: Kevin de Bruyne

De Bruyne enjoyed his best goal-scoring as well as improving his ever-consistent playmaking role. He was undoubtably the best central midfielder in the game. De Bruyne’s influence on the attacking play is evident leading in key passes per game by some margin and creating the second-highest big chances per game. His efficiency is abundantly clear: de Bruyne’s finishing ability was ranked third overall as well as providing the highest big-chances spread metric.

2020 Ballon d’Or 3^rd place: Jadon Sancho

Sancho – similar to de Bruyne – enjoyed his best goal-scoring campaign as well as, too, improving his playmaking role. He was the third most influential in his team’s goals, thus demonstrating his importance to the team. Sancho was one of the five playmakers that separated themselves from the others. Though his most-telling excellence was his efficiency: Sancho was only one of three players to create more chances than missing, and was the second-most clinical finisher, just behind the European Golden Boot winner Immobile.

2020 Ballon d’Or 4^th place: Robert Lewandowski

Lewandowski enjoyed his highest goal-scoring campaign (arguably the best striker) and that’s why he was a serious contender for the Ballon d’Or. Yet, this is where whole numbers are misleading. What hurt Lewandowski was that his finishing was not particularly impressive and had it been of the level (or nearer) of Timor Werner or Ciro Immobile, he would have actually won the European Golden Boot. He missed the second-highest number of big chances per game and missed the most (35) big chances. Finally, he was non-existent in the Playmaker, Showman and Player Efficiency rankings, demonstrating his lack of depth in his game.

2020 Ballon d’Or 5^th place: Neymar

Neymar enjoyed a relatively short, injury-free campaign. Whilst there were no weightings in the metrics, both Neymar and Mbappe played little football due to the French league being cancelled. However, due to Neymar’s performances in the Champions League he made himself a Ballon d’Or contender. His playmaking ability is unquestionable, and though scored and created many goals, Neymar’s finishing ability was not great this season.

Ballon d’Or Criteria

France Football instruct their 180-person jury to follow the criteria below:

1. Individual and collective performances (winners) during the year.
2. Player class (talent and fair play).
3. Player’s career.

Before getting onto the criteria itself, it applies to the calendar year. This is a problem. The award now being announced at the beginning of December (as opposed to January) and requiring voting to take place early November, this ignores all football played in November and December. Even if someone produced the best football the world had ever seen during that period, it is as if it did not happen – ignored, completely! Now, there is soon to be something of particular importance to football in those months: Quatar World Cup 2022. Is the voting going to be altered, pushed back till the end of January? Thus, the jury being even more susceptible to memory-influenced bias (read Should Artificial Intelligence be used to Officiate Sport?)

In terms of criteria one’s ‘collective performances’, two things will be said. First, using their own calendar season criteria, a winning team from the league could have won the league from the previous calendar’s form. In other words, a winning team in a country’s domestic league was not necessarily the best/winning team because half, if not more, of the ‘winners’ performances’ are unaccounted for, i.e., the first part of the season does not count. Second, this is an individual award, and whilst there is no denying that playing with better teammates is beneficial, no team awards should be used whatsoever to determine an individual award. It significantly limits who can win the award.

In terms of criteria two, what does player class really mean? It is unclear, and if further guidance is not provided to the jury, France Football are just allowing multiple interpretations / opinions to cloud the judgement.  Criteria three, a ‘player’s career’ is also interesting. Does this mean a player’s trophy(ies) count? Because if it does, then it is effectively rating players that have been with successful teams more highly than those who have not been as fortunate. The word fortunate is important – there is a lot of luck involved in football, especially in knock-out tournaments. For example, Player A and Player B’s individual statistics may have been the same, yet the player whose teammates have helped more gets credit. Yes, getting individual credit for their teammates performances and not judged on their individual performances alone. This is further highlighted when a player’s individual statistics are actually better than another, i.e., a better player in a ‘worse’ team. At no point in this analysis, nor any fair analysis comparing two players, should team trophies be used.

Finally, are these criteria weighted, i.e., does the collective performance of a team outweigh an individual’s performance? Weighting is by no means wrong, but if left to individuals [jury] to make up their own mind, then biases/personal opinions implode. To note, no weighting was used in this analysis.

Where was the data from?

• Sofascore (successful dribbles, key passes, number of touches, big chances)
• WhoScored (successful dribbles, key passes)
• UnderStat (expected goals)
• FootyStats (goals, assists, pens)
• Transfermarket (freekicks)

The Stat Squabbler says:

1. The Ballon d’Or is an individual award and football is multifaceted. Team records/trophies must not be used to compare individual players.
2. When making comparisons between players, keep everything (as much as possible) the same. Use rates/percentages instead of whole numbers to give a fairer comparison.
3. Football metrics do favour attacking players. Accurate metrics do need to be developed for more defensive players (though this is not just an issue for football).
4. Messi did it all in 2020: top 3 for goal contributions per 90 (as well as contributing the highest percentage for his team); top 3 for playmaker; the best showman (e.g., dribbling); top 3 for player efficiency.
5. The Ballon d’Or criteria is not fit for purpose as well as who gets to vote. A larger jury must be used and advanced metrics should be used for at least 50% of the vote.

Do you agree with the Stat Squabbler: Was Messi robbed? Did de Bruyne and Sancho deserve to be on the podium? Have a different view: create your own ranking here and post it to us on our Twitter page.

Comment below.